The news from Florida… and what it means for Obamacare

Tuesday there was a special election in Florida. A Republican member of the House of Representatives, Bill Young, had died and his seat was being filled, but the district in fact had been trending Democratic. President Barack Obama had won the district twice, as had the most recent Democratic candidate for Governor of Florida, Alex Sink. And this same Alex Sink was the Democratic candidate for the House seat to be filled, so she didn't need to build name recognition. And the Republican candidate, David Jolly, was a former lobbyist (a fact that his opponent used against him) with no history in politics, and who had weathered a divisive primary. So by a lot of lights, Sink was favored to flip this seat and turn it “blue.” This in fact was predicted by such as Sean Trende, even though he considers this a Republican year, and has predicted that the Republicans will take over the Senate.

So what should we conclude? Trende had said before the election was complete that this single election means little, and afterwards has not changed that point of view. But really, given all that was going in Alex Sink's favor, I think one thing is certain: it is poisonous to be associated with “Obamacare.” She was not even there to vote for it, but merely defended it in her campaigning. And David Jolly made attacking “Obamacare” the cornerstone of his campaign. This has to mean something. And certainly in the elections where Democratic incumbents are up for re-election, who actually voted for “Obamacare” in Congress, this will be used against them. I think this Noveber will be a good day for Republicans.