Polls now seem to show that President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by a slim margin. There are a few recent polls with a lead for Romney, but more favor Obama. Should we put any trust in them, though, this long before the election? Probably not.
Let's look at the polling data from 2008, four years ago. Remember that this was an election that Obama won by 52.9% to 45.7%. What were the polls showing around April 26? Mostly a tie. In between, a lot happened. Among other things, John McCain built up a bit of a lead in September — though even at that time, the polls ranged from 54-44 McCain to 47-45 Obama. Then, the economy tanked. Obama went ahead, in one poll by as much as 53-38. But his eventual margin was a lot less.
The point is, we don't know what will happen between now and November. We could have another 9/11 — though it's not likely. If gasoline prices hit $5, it will hurt Obama (though I myself would hardly notice, since I don't own an automobile). The Supreme Court will announce its decisions on Obamacare, the Arizona law on illegal immigrants, and other matters in a couple of months and this will inflame tempers one way or the other. North Korea may do something, or the war between the Sudans might escalate to the point of affecting us. But nobody knows now what the news will be in the next few months.
So I look at the polls, but I think it is impossible to place a lot of trust in them, especially when it is only April.
Let's look at the polling data from 2008, four years ago. Remember that this was an election that Obama won by 52.9% to 45.7%. What were the polls showing around April 26? Mostly a tie. In between, a lot happened. Among other things, John McCain built up a bit of a lead in September — though even at that time, the polls ranged from 54-44 McCain to 47-45 Obama. Then, the economy tanked. Obama went ahead, in one poll by as much as 53-38. But his eventual margin was a lot less.
The point is, we don't know what will happen between now and November. We could have another 9/11 — though it's not likely. If gasoline prices hit $5, it will hurt Obama (though I myself would hardly notice, since I don't own an automobile). The Supreme Court will announce its decisions on Obamacare, the Arizona law on illegal immigrants, and other matters in a couple of months and this will inflame tempers one way or the other. North Korea may do something, or the war between the Sudans might escalate to the point of affecting us. But nobody knows now what the news will be in the next few months.
So I look at the polls, but I think it is impossible to place a lot of trust in them, especially when it is only April.
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